Big Deal. She wasn't supposed to win!

We will hear, and have heard, this refrain over and over from the Clinton campaign.

"This contest doesn't matter because Hillary was expected to do poorly." "Wait for the next round."

The Clinton campaign is fond of framing many of these contests as "She went in knowing she was going to lose" days before the contest.

But recent history is telling a story not of an underdog going in, but rather a winner losing traction.

Some Wisconsin numbers:

St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio Survey, Nov. 08:
Hillary Clinton 43        
Barack Obama 25

Strategic Vision December, 07
Hillary Clinton 36        
Barack Obama 29

University of Wisconsin Badger Poll. Nov. 27-Dec. 5, 2007

Hillary Clinton 39        
Barack Obama 26

This reveals a significant loss of support for Clinton as the public becomes more well-informed.

For those who wish to state "Well, that's just Wisconsin", there's Virginia:

Washington Post Poll. Oct. 4-8, 2007
     
Hillary Clinton 49        
Barack Obama  25

I could also cite South Carolina but that would just be cruel.

Even states she has won have been much closer in margin than polls taken in November, December and January would have predicted.

Hillary isn't going into any of these states as an "Underdog", she's going in as the candidate who was the clear party favorite, with overwhelming leads in national and state polls, the prepared and experienced machine, who is in a slide.

The Clintons took too much for granted, their campaign got lazy, and it has cost them dearly.

Every state, every vote does matter...and watching the Clinton campaign scramble right now is a good lesson as to what happens when a candidate forgets that.